| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point. |
| D4 | Fri, May 10, 2024 - Sat, May 11, 2024 |
D7 | Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024 |
| D5 | Sat, May 11, 2024 - Sun, May 12, 2024 |
D8 | Tue, May 14, 2024 - Wed, May 15, 2024 |
| D6 | Sun, May 12, 2024 - Mon, May 13, 2024 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
- 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
- 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
- 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|
| POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period). |
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS48 KWNS 070850
SWOD48
SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Isolated severe potential on Day 4/Friday should remain confined to
parts of north FL and vicinity along/ahead of a cold front. The
overall environment and limited spatial extent of the threat does
not appear sufficient to justify including a 15% severe area at this
time. Generally low severe potential is anticipated on Day
5/Saturday, although some strong thunderstorms may still occur
across parts of the FL Peninsula where the cold front stalls.
Guidance generally indicates low-level moisture should attempt to
return northward across parts of the southern Plains around Day
6/Sunday and continuing into early next week. But, generally zonal
mid-level flow across this region, with a weak upper low over the
Great Basin/Southwest, suggests that whatever severe potential
ultimately develops across the southern Plains may tend to remain
fairly isolated.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2024
