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Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS03 KWNS 070732
SWODY3
SPC AC 070731
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST
TEXAS INTO THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS...AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday
from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast, and northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic.
...Central/East Texas into the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Mid-Atlantic...
An upper trough will gradually consolidate and move eastward across
the Midwest and OH Valley on Thursday. A weak surface low is
forecast to develop from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through
the day, with a trailing cold front extending southwestward from
this low across the Carolinas, Southeast, and into parts of
central/east TX. The cold front should serve as a focus for
convective initiation Thursday afternoon. With steep mid-level lapse
rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, moderate to
strong instability is anticipated from central TX into the lower MS
Valley/Southeast. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from
northern Mexico may support convective initiation across
central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear
should support organized convection, with a threat for mainly large
hail and severe/damaging winds.
Across the lower MS Valley/Southeast, one or more clusters may form
along the southward-sagging cold front. A MCS posing a threat for
mainly damaging winds may eventually evolve and spread
east-southeastward across parts of LA into southern MS/AL Thursday
afternoon and perhaps continuing into the night. Farther east into
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, weak to moderate instability should
develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow
and related deep-layer shear should increase through the day with
the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should
gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon,
especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains.
Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or
supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards
the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2024
$$
