SPC MD 643

MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR

Mesoscale Discussion 0643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...Northeast TX/southeast OK into northern LA and
southern/central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052014Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two could evolve late
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier convection is allowing
for airmass recovery across northern LA and southern AR. Persistent
low-level theta-e advection in advance of a weak surface low across
northeast TX may allow for storm redevelopment later this afternoon,
within an effective warm frontal zone. With some midlevel drying
expected in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough across AR, the
number and intensity of storms later this afternoon remains
uncertain. However, increasing moisture/instability and relatively
favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KSHV and KLZK VWPs)
could support brief tornado potential with any longer-lived cells
late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and gusty
winds will also be possible. 

At this time, the threat is expected to remain rather marginal and
isolated, rendering the need for watch issuance uncertain. Trends
will be closely monitored for the development of a supercell or two
later this afternoon.

..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32409427 32499497 33299518 34129536 34329461 34869290
            34099140 33459123 32979126 32149166 31889191 31709220
            31829266 31979300 32149349 32309394 32409427 

SPC MD 642

MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR SOUTH TX
        

Mesoscale Discussion 0642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...South TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

Valid 052009Z - 052115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells embedded within a slow,
southeast-moving cluster will largely impact the southwest portion
of WW 186 through 6 PM CDT. Additional severe storm development will
be possible elsewhere, but appears to be trending towards lower
probabilities of occurrence.

DISCUSSION...A pair of deep convective updrafts with echo tops of
50-55k ft are slowly moving southeastward at around 15 kts. These
cells appear to have connected outflow and will likely continue
their slow progression over the next couple hours. The environment
ahead of them contains appreciable buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg, supporting a potential increase in intensity through late
afternoon with a mix of large hail to around golf ball size and wind
gusts of 55-70 mph possible. With greater MLCIN over Deep South TX,
in conjunction with increasing mid-level warming in the wake of a
southern-stream low-amplitude shortwave impulse, the severe threat
should decrease during the early evening.

Farther north and northeast, convection has largely struggled to
intensify along residual outflows where the boundary layer has been
relatively cooler. 18Z HRRR guidance suggests this activity may not
greatly intensify, and the overall severe threat appears marginal.

..Grams.. 05/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28709880 28129798 27699780 27349806 27239859 27259913
            27919958 28249965 28429966 28709880 


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